This practice is similar to Spain`s situation now where they have entire uninhabited building complexes that have yet to be marked to market, and will probably ultimately be demolished. But at least in Spain, even though it was a construction boom, it was engineered by developers in Spain, and not by some manufacturing outfits like those in China.
So, multiply the bad business project factor by ten and you get an understanding of the magnitude of bad loans on the books of Chinese banks. The problem is being further exacerbated by the practice similar to Spain`s of banks making additional loans to the businesses just so that they can then turnaround and pay back the interest owed on the original loans.
The only way this would work out is if these projects magically develop revenue streams. Unfortunately, in the case of Spain, a 20% unemployment rate, coupled with a still overvalued housing market in which prices still need to come down significantly, would suggest that by the time the Spanish economy recovers enough to support the excess inventory, the abandoned projects are run down and uninhabitable.
A similar scenario could play out in China as well.
True Smart Money Wary of the Write-off Domino
Furthermore, China`s practice of overbuilding at the height of real estate valuations makes even haircuts on loan write-offs an untenable practice for banks, and by further throwing good money after bad, the ultimate mark- to-market effect could be catastrophic for Chinese Banks.
This is the main reason all the major Chinese banks have gone to the market in 2010 to raise more capital before investors wise up to the underlying deficits these banks face, as these bad loans eventually would need to be written off the books.
Victor Shih, a Northwestern University professor estimates that Chinese local governments borrowed some 11.4 trillion renminbi at the end of 2009, and that local government financing loans to be roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP.
Shih reckons the most likely scenario over the next few years is that there would be increases of non-performing loans ratio from local governments. This would require a large scale of recapitalization of the Chinese banking system, which would eat up a large share of China's foreign exchange reserves and possibly slow down growth.
I do believe Beijing is quite capable of a few bailouts and surviving a widespread banking crisis, but this most definitely will not bode well for the financial markets. That's most likely why you see insiders removing capital from direct exposure to the inevitable re-pricing that will happen throughout Chinese markets from real estate to the stock market.
This can be seen at this early stage by the underperformance of the Chinese stock market compared to other global markets. Remember, foreigners cannot invest directly in these markets, so these capital outflows are truly the smart money.
Logistic Gridlock Crimping the Middle Class
Next let`s look at the recent news regarding a severe cutback in automobile registrations in Beijing to 240,000 in 2011 from 700,000 registered in 2010 by the municipal government. Other large cities in China are bound to follow. This is most likely related to the reported 9-day traffic jam on the Beijing-Tibet expressway in August, and other extended traffic jams throughout China in 2010.
China is trying to build infrastructure projects after the fact; whereas with proper central planning these should have been established far ahead of the massive transition from a rural, agricultural based populous to that of a modern, large city based business and manufacturing concentration.
Simply put, it is impossible for all the Chinese citizens who want and can afford automobiles to be able to own and utilize this form of transport without a total breakdown in the transportation system. We are seeing the early stages of complete and counterproductive gridlock in the transportation system of China, and it is only going to get worse over the next decade.
No Jobs for College Grads
For all the talk about how China graduates more engineers each year, and other college educated young people who have strong backgrounds in the hard sciences than most developed nations combined, this is actually another sign of problems to come over the next decade in China.
China`s wealth and emergence into the second largest business economy hasn`t been built around the need for these types of mind and skill set. So literally you have a large mismatch between the types of available jobs in China, that are supported by the heavy manufacturing and construction intensive focus of the past twenty years, to that of the recently educated pool of graduates who have grown in sizable numbers over the past five years.
The Mind Is A Terrible Thing To Waste
This results in a large human asset class that China is currently wasting, as most of the newly educated workforce is working in jobs which require little or no advanced education at the university level. So you have highly educated university graduates in areas like engineering and accounting working low level service and sales jobs that pay less than many manufacturing jobs.
In short, there are too many highly educated Chinese citizens graduating each year for the number of jobs available needing their skill set because China`s economic model isn`t built around these type of jobs. This type of misaligned employment outcomes never ends well; it usually manifests itself in increased civil and social unrest.
8% Inflation in 2011
The next major challenge for China is a skyrocketing inflation, which at its root is the fact that there are too many people chasing too few resources. This fundamental flaw in population dynamics underpins many of the problems that China faces going forward.
Recent CPI data for November illustrates the inflation problem in China with a reading of 5.1% from a year ago comparison, this is up from a 4.4% reading for the previous month. Couple this with the latest 4% hike in fuel prices in China because of rising oil prices, you could expect future CPI and PPI reports to reflect even higher rates of inflation.
For now, most of the year over year spike has revolved around higher food prices as energy has mainly been flat for 2010 thanks mostly to government subsidies. Now that energy prices have entered the picture, China will start to experience even more inflation pressures in 2011.
Furthermore, with the undervalued yuan pegged to the dollar, it is only getting worse for China in 2011 due to Fed's QE2 pressures on the dollar. The real inflation rate for Chinese citizens for 2011 will probably approach 8% next year.
An Asian Contagion by China?
This escalating inflation concern is further compounded by Beijing's lack of decisive action to combat the problem by delaying a much needed currency appreciation, and hiking interest rates in a timely fashion. There is no getting around the fact that these two things need to occur as soon as possible.
By the time the Chinese government is forced to implement these tightening tools, the damage to the economy is most likely already done. The longer China delays the inevitable serious tightening measures, the harder the economic crash that will occur in the aftermath of these policy changes. And it is unlikely to end well. The resultant impact will probably take the rest of the Asian economies down with it – an Asian Contagion scenario.
History Repeats Itself
Eventually central planners and finance ministers around the world might start to understand that policies which lead to bubbles being formed in the first place are counterproductive in the long run. But until that lesson is learned, it seems like we are doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again.
Right now, there are more and more signs coming out of China that all is not well with its economy, and the likelihood of a more severe downturn in the future is a distinct possibility, unless its policy makers take decisive and prudent actions to minimize the damage of a hard landing.
Dian L. Chu, Dec. 25, 2010 | Mobile Reader, Website | Google Profile
President Obama spent much of Wednesday huddled with a group of business executives, an effort The New York Times said afterward "went a long way to reset the tone of the relationship between Mr. Obama and corporate America" in the eyes of the corporate chieftains who attended.
That's all well and good, if the problems with today's economy were rooted in a lack of warmth and fuzziness between President Obama and corporate CEOs. But they aren't. For decades, the interests of corporate lobbyists—the people acting on behalf of many of the executives at the White House meeting—have been at odds with the interests of working people. The White House "making peace" with corporate CEOs, to use The Washington Post's description of the meeting, is one thing. But Wall Street needs to make peace with those of us who have been forced, as a result of the conservative policies they promoted, to live through a decade of stagnant wages, unemployment and underemployment. Wall Street needs a reset with working America.
Unfortunately, it's not at all clear that this meeting delivered much for working-class people. The Post reported that "after the meeting, several chief executives said their conversation with the president was constructive and open as they discussed education, trade, taxes and jobs. But the executives and Obama remained vague about specific outcomes they expected from the meeting."
And one of the few specifics reported from the meeting is highly disturbing. Bloomberg reported that the CEOs had their hands out for yet another tax cut:
While Obama has called on the CEOs to spend the $2 trillion in cash their companies have accumulated on job creation, the executives said much of that is earnings from overseas sales that are retained abroad to avoid paying U.S. corporate income tax. U.S.-based multinational corporations pay corporate income tax on earnings when they are brought back to the U.S. If the revenue remains abroad, either in cash or investment in overseas facilities, the money isn’t taxed.
Obama said he would consider the issue and asked what the executives would be willing to give up in other corporate tax rates to make sure it remains revenue neutral.
Actually, in many cases the earnings involved are not necessarily from "overseas sales." Many multinational corporations have created elaborate schemes to ensure that domestic sales are credited as foreign ones in order to avoid paying corporate income tax. It's how Google avoids paying billions in corporate income taxes to the United States and the United Kingdom.
President Obama has rightly pledged to go after this tax dodge and sent some proposals to Congress last year that Citizens for Tax Justice said were "steps in the right direction." Businesses have countered with demands for a "tax holiday," The Financial Times reported in October. Again, at least until now, the Obama administration has resisted. One reason, as the FT notes, is that there is no guarantee that the money coaxed back into the U.S. will actually be used for investment and job creation.
We've been here before. In 2004 the Bush administration and the Republican Congress gave corporations a tax amnesty on profits sheltered overseas. The benefits for workers were negligible. Gannett News Service reported earlier this year in a story about Sen. Barbara Boxer's support for an offshore tax break:
A Congressional Research Service analysis published in January 2009 found that 10 of the top dozen companies that took advantage of the 2004 break cut jobs. Hewlett-Packard repatriated $14.5 billion and laid off 14,500. Pfizer repatriated $37 billion and cut 9,000 jobs in 2005.California-based Oracle and Intel also repatriated foreign earnings. The money helped Oracle acquire two U.S. companies and helped Intel build a new factory
.
The Business Roundtable, a champion of the tax amnesty idea, says of the money that came back to the U.S. as a result of 2004 holiday, 25 percent went to capital investments and 23 percent to hiring and training new workers. Even that positive spin suggests the country doesn't get very much for coaxing businesses to do less than what they should be dong as corporate citizens.
Corporations succeed in the United States not simply because of what they do on their own. Their success depends on the quality of public schools that prepare their workers, transportation networks that move goods and people, agencies that help keep people healthy and safe, and efforts to ensure that each American is able to maintain at least a minimal standard of living. All of these are government functions that corporations undercut when they engage in schemes to avoid paying taxes, leaving the rest of us to struggle with the consequences.
The businesses that profit as a result of the public commons that We the People provide should not have to be given special inducements to pay their fair share toward supporting that commons. (As it stands now, contrary to conservative claims to the contrary, the truth is U.S. corporations pay some of the lowest tax rates of major industrial powers.) That is the starting point from which President Obama should begin in building a new tax framework in which businesses and Main Street can profit together in a new economy.
Even as corporations are seeking a tax holiday, these same corporations spent hundreds of millions of dollars electing congressional candidates opposed to government initiatives that would stimulate the economy and stoke the demand that would coax their hoarded cash off the sidelines. Instead of egging on, tacitly or otherwise, the anti-spending crowd, these CEOs could still choose to back a real economic stimulus—not just cross-your-fingers-and-hope-they-trickle-down tax cuts, but real investment in the economy's future.
Lew Prince, a small business owner in St. Louis, recently penned an op-ed that offered a more Main Street perspective on what businesses need to prosper:
We shouldn’t borrow billions more dollars from China and Saudi Arabia to give to the wealthy. Instead the wealthy should pay their fair share. We need adequate tax revenue to invest in our economy. More tax cuts at the top won’t create jobs. But we will create jobs and strengthen our economy by rebuilding our crumbling roads, bridges, public transit, levees and water and gas pipelines. We will save and create jobs by investing in education and clean energy research and manufacturing now growing much more rapidly in other countries.
Now that Obama has met with business executives, his next step should be a summit meeting with the unemployed. And then let's have a real debate in which business executives and their conservative benefactors are called to account on whether they are really interested in the fates of American workers or just in their own balance sheets.
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The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
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The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
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The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
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The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
bench craft company scam
The Best of 2010's Animals in the <b>News</b>
2010 produced many weird, far-out, bizarre photos of people. But let's not forget all of the animals that made headlines over the past 12 months: from a rhino cow, penguin santas and lip-syncing monkey, we offer some of the best.
Neanderthals Enjoyed Home-Cooked Meals, Study Finds - AOL <b>News</b>
Even Neanderthals understood the value of a diverse diet. Researchers have identified strong evidence that the Neanderthal diet, previously thought to be almost exclusively meat-based, also included a nutritious portion of cooked ...
How Online <b>News</b> Evolved in 2010
News is changing – quickly. The way it's researched, the way it's reported and the way we access it are all evolving rapidly. 2010 could well be remembered as a key year in the history of online news. Here are the key reasons why. ...
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